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Charles Goldfinger
In Memory
of Charles Goldfinger

Charles Goldfinger, a distinguished economic advisor and a frequent contributor to the Highdeal Industry Insights, died on 3 June in Brussels. Charles Goldfinger was a Brussels-based international consultant in corporate strategy and economic policy, with particular expertise in financial services and information technology. His most recent projects included helping an innovative cancer research company in his native Poland get access to Western funding. At the time of his death, he was concluding his latest book, in English, on the theory of quantum economics.

 

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Triple-play: One Critical Challenge
By Charles Goldfinger, August 2006

After many false starts, the long-awaited convergence of media and technologies has arrived. These converged services are known as triple-play (the bundling of internet, VoIP telecom and IPTV) and quadruple-play (the bundling of internet, VoIP telecom, mobile telecom and IPTV). Both incumbents and newcomers in various sectors are rushing to bring a bewildering range of triple- and quadruple-play offerings, making the already competitive media and technology landscape more crowded and complex.

Performance improvements and the growing customer penetration of broadband internet have made triple-play possible. By allowing a great flexibility of configurations and access points, broadband internet access is the unifying force on the technology front. One can use a PC to watch television, a mobile phone to access internet, and the Internet to make cheap phone calls. Yet, customers do not have to make exclusive choices and put all their eggs in one basket (or a single distribution channel) with these new services. Triple-play makes “mix and match” a universal attribute for both demand and supply.

Now that the technological hurdles have been overcome, the business challenge of convergence has come sharply into focus. Past efforts have not been very convincing. AT&T spent over 140 billion dollars in cable TV acquisitions with practically nothing to show. Microsoft spent similarly large sums and a great deal of top management attention in trying to become a media giant. Yet, they can not really claim to have accomplished this goal. On the mobile side, efforts to generate more content revenue from 3G networks have not been fully conclusive.

While some argue otherwise, the business challenges with triple-play are unlikely to be easier. According to a range of detailed studies carried out by Forrester Research, all the major telecom companies in Europe (DT, France Telecom, and Telefonica among others) will lose a great deal of money on triple-play offerings.

Yet despite those dire perspectives, triple-play offerings are not slowing down. One explanation for this trend is the widespread belief that as bad as economic prospects for triple-play appear, it is better to be present rather then absent. Presence enhances the chance of survival in the competitive shake-out, which everyone believe is bound to happen. Considering that previous announcements of the 'death of television' or the extinction of POTs were premature, a degree of caution is advisable with regard to powers of triple-play as well.

Another explanation for why triple-play offerings are growing is that the business models for these bundled services may prove to be more complex than Forrester assumed they would be. In particular, triple-play protagonists are likely to seek a wider range of revenues than direct payments from end-customers. In the media sectors, whether old (Hollywood) or new (Google and Yahoo), indirect revenues from advertising and other forms of third party payments, represent an essential and growing income stream.

Triple-play will make a competitive structure of ICT sector even more dense and complex than it is today. One thing however will still remain critical to triple-play’s success: the importance of the business model.

 


Highdeal Point of View

Service bundling or service richness?

Triple-play offers are fast becoming a must have, not only to combat competitive threats, as we witness even well known triple-play providers see their market shares decline, but also as churn reducing strategies, tying customers into a whole new portfolio of services. In some less advanced or less competitive markets, new single service offerings such as VoIP are strategic choices and rather than go down the multi-service route, the focus is typically on offering more feature rich services. Whether the approach is service bundling or service richness, the objective is ultimately to increase ARPUs and drive customer retention, and whether such new offers can deliver on this promise, still remains to be seen and will be dependant on the marketing mix applied.

A need to be reactive and agile

Service providers with the best chances for surviving the “competitive shake-out” will undoubtedly be those with the most well thought out and viable business models, and which can adapt and react swiftly within an often volatile marketplace. In real terms this means pricing and service bundling according to the needs of specific markets and adopting a more retail oriented approach by micro segmenting and tailoring offers to groups based on demographics, personal interests and ethnicity for example. Promotions, discounts and loyalty related service bonuses should be part and parcel of any offering as well as the ability to differentiate offers rapidly by introducing exciting new content from any number of third parties. Finally, the ability to swiftly adapt and refine existing offers in response for example to a competitors new offer, will be vital in an increasingly unpredictable market.

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